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Eredivisie · Matchday 19Friday 15 January · 19:00 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
HEE 52%X 25%SPA 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Heerenveen lead by 107 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Heerenveen 2.4 points per game, Sparta Rotterdam 1.4.
  • Heerenveen take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.557%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.91X25%3.96222%4.47
Double chance
1X78%1.29X248%2.101275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.34BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam – Heerenveen19 September 20260-4
Heerenveen – Sparta Rotterdam28 February 20262-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Heerenveen14 December 20250-3
Sparta Rotterdam – Heerenveen12 April 20253-1
Heerenveen – Sparta Rotterdam26 October 20242-0
Sparta Rotterdam – Heerenveen19 May 20242-1