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Eredivisie · Matchday 19Saturday 16 January · 15:30 · 711 Stadion
Telstar16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
TEL 31%X 26%NEC 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • NEC Nijmegen lead by 69 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: NEC Nijmegen -0.1, Telstar -0.7.
  • If Telstar score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.8
Over 2.563%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a NEC Nijmegen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.26X26%3.92244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X269%1.441275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.563%1.59Under 2.537%2.69BTTS yes65%1.55BTTS no35%2.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Telstar · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

NEC Nijmegen – Telstar8 August 20261-2
NEC Nijmegen – Telstar2 May 20261-1
Telstar – NEC Nijmegen13 December 20252-2