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Eredivisie · Matchday 19Sunday 17 January · 11:15 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Twente4th place
UTR 19%X 23%TWE 58%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Twente lead by 145 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Twente 1.6, Utrecht -0.6.
  • Twente take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If Twente score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.0
Over 2.561%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Twente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.18X23%4.38258%1.73
Double chance
1X42%2.37X281%1.241277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.561%1.64Under 2.539%2.57BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.45

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Utrecht · Columns: Twente1-1 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →
UtrechtLWWDL
TwenteWDLWW

Head to head

Twente – Utrecht18 October 20261-2
Twente – Utrecht15 March 20260-2
Utrecht – Twente7 December 20251-1
Twente – Utrecht11 May 20252-0
Utrecht – Twente1 September 20242-1
Twente – Utrecht18 February 20240-1