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La Liga · Matchday 27Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alavés10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
ALA 38%X 29%ATH 33%

Prediction

  • If Alavés score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.544%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Alavés win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.64X29%3.46233%3.01
Double chance
1X67%1.50X262%1.611271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.544%2.27Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alavés · Columns: Athletic Bilbao1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

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Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Alavés19 September 20260-0
Alavés – Athletic Bilbao2 May 20262-4
Athletic Bilbao – Alavés13 September 20250-1
Athletic Bilbao – Alavés11 May 20251-0
Alavés – Athletic Bilbao15 December 20241-1
Athletic Bilbao – Alavés16 March 20242-0