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La Liga · Matchday 27Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Celta Vigo10th place
ATM 62%X 23%CEL 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 162 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Celta Vigo 1.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Celta Vigo -0.3.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Celta Vigo score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.549%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.60X23%4.28214%7.02
Double chance
1X86%1.17X238%2.661277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes46%2.17BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Celta Vigo1-0 probability 12.7%

Form

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Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Celta Vigo9 May 20260-1
Celta Vigo – Atlético Madrid5 October 20251-1
Atlético Madrid – Celta Vigo15 February 20251-1
Celta Vigo – Atlético Madrid26 September 20240-1
Atlético Madrid – Celta Vigo12 May 20241-0
Celta Vigo – Atlético Madrid21 October 20230-3