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La Liga · Matchday 27Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
VIL 25%X 26%RMA 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 162 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Villarreal 1.4.
  • Real Madrid take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.557%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Real Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.95X26%3.88249%2.04
Double chance
1X51%1.96X275%1.341274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.31BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Real Madrid1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

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Head to head

Real Madrid – Villarreal10 October 20261-0
Villarreal – Real Madrid24 January 20260-2
Real Madrid – Villarreal4 October 20253-1
Villarreal – Real Madrid15 March 20251-2
Real Madrid – Villarreal5 October 20242-0
Villarreal – Real Madrid19 May 20244-4