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La Liga · Matchday 10Friday 23 October · 20:00 · Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alavés11th place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Málaga20th place
ALA 62%X 23%MAL 14%

What does the market say?

AlavésDrawMálagaRinvalo62%23%14%
Market58%25%17%

✓ Agree · both back Alavés

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Alavés lead by 93 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Alavés 0.4, Málaga -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: Alavés 1.4 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Alavés score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Málaga score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.7
Over 2.542%
Both teams score41%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.60X23%4.27214%7.02
Double chance
1X86%1.17X238%2.651277%1.31
Goals
Over 2.542%2.36Under 2.558%1.74BTTS yes41%2.46BTTS no59%1.68

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alavés · Columns: Málaga1-1 probability 11.3% · final score

Form

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AlavésDLLDL
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Head to head

Alavés – Málaga23 October 20261-1