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La Liga · Matchday 10Sunday 25 October · 13:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Full time4-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Getafe12th place
ATH 54%X 28%GET 18%

What does the market say?

Athletic BilbaoDrawGetafeRinvalo54%28%18%
Market60%25%15%

✓ Agree · both back Athletic Bilbao

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.3, Getafe -0.5.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Getafe score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 14%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.7
Over 2.534%
Both teams score38%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.86X28%3.60218%5.42
Double chance
1X82%1.23X246%2.161272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.534%2.96Under 2.566%1.51BTTS yes38%2.66BTTS no62%1.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Getafe4-0 probability 1.9% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Getafe25 October 20264-0
Getafe – Athletic Bilbao5 April 20262-0
Athletic Bilbao – Getafe25 October 20250-1
Getafe – Athletic Bilbao15 May 20250-2
Athletic Bilbao – Getafe15 August 20241-1
Getafe – Athletic Bilbao3 May 20240-2