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La Liga · Matchday 10Sunday 25 October · 20:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Full time1-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Real Madrid3rd place
BAR 58%X 23%RMA 19%

What does the market say?

BarcelonaDrawReal MadridRinvalo58%23%19%
Market59%18%24%

✓ Agree · both back Barcelona

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 95 rating points.
  • Barcelona take 3.0 points per game at home.
  • Last 5 games: Barcelona 3.0 points per game, Real Madrid 1.8.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.3
Over 2.568%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.72X23%4.36219%5.33
Double chance
1X81%1.23X242%2.401277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.568%1.48Under 2.532%3.10BTTS yes64%1.55BTTS no36%2.81

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Real Madrid1-2 probability 5.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Barcelona – Real Madrid25 October 20261-2
Barcelona – Real Madrid10 May 20262-0
Real Madrid – Barcelona26 October 20252-1
Barcelona – Real Madrid11 May 20254-3
Real Madrid – Barcelona26 October 20240-4
Real Madrid – Barcelona21 April 20243-2