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La Liga · Matchday 19Sunday 10 January · 16:00 · Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alavés11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Real Sociedad5th place
ALA 44%X 27%RSO 29%

Prediction

  • If Alavés score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.3
Over 2.555%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Alavés win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.28X27%3.67229%3.47
Double chance
1X71%1.41X256%1.781273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.21BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alavés · Columns: Real Sociedad1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

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Head to head

Real Sociedad – Alavés11 April 20263-3
Alavés – Real Sociedad6 December 20251-0
Alavés – Real Sociedad23 April 20251-0
Real Sociedad – Alavés28 August 20241-2
Alavés – Real Sociedad31 March 20240-1
Real Sociedad – Alavés2 January 20241-1