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La Liga · Matchday 19Sunday 10 January · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Villarreal8th place
ATH 39%X 28%VIL 33%

Prediction

  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.59X28%3.55233%3.01
Double chance
1X67%1.50X261%1.631272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Villarreal1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

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Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Villarreal12 April 20261-2
Villarreal – Athletic Bilbao27 September 20251-0
Villarreal – Athletic Bilbao6 April 20250-0
Athletic Bilbao – Villarreal8 December 20242-0
Athletic Bilbao – Villarreal14 April 20241-1
Villarreal – Athletic Bilbao5 November 20232-3