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La Liga · Matchday 19Sunday 10 January · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Racing Santander16th place
ATM 80%X 13%RAC 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 246 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Racing Santander 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Racing Santander -1.1.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Racing Santander score first, they win 23% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.2 – 1.0
Over 2.579%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.25X13%7.4226%15.48
Double chance
1X94%1.07X220%5.021287%1.16
Goals
Over 2.579%1.27Under 2.521%4.74BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Racing Santander3-0 probability 8.5%

Form

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