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Primeira Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Famalicão11th place
ALV 37%X 29%FAM 34%

Prediction

  • If Alverca score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.2
Over 2.542%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.74X29%3.43234%2.91
Double chance
1X66%1.52X264%1.571271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.542%2.36Under 2.558%1.73BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Famalicão1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

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Head to head

Famalicão – Alverca12 October 20261-4
Famalicão – Alverca16 May 20261-0
Alverca – Famalicão4 January 20261-0