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Primeira Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Rio Ave16th place
NAC 46%X 28%RAV 26%

Prediction

  • If Nacional score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nacional win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.16X28%3.61226%3.84
Double chance
1X74%1.35X254%1.861272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Rio Ave1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →
Rio AveDLWLL

Head to head

Rio Ave – Nacional11 October 20263-2
Nacional – Rio Ave25 January 20264-0
Rio Ave – Nacional17 August 20251-1
Nacional – Rio Ave10 May 20253-3
Rio Ave – Nacional29 December 20242-1