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Primeira Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Casa Pia17th place
SCL 58%X 26%CPA 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Santa Clara lead by 147 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Santa Clara 0.3, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • Last 5 games: Santa Clara 2.0 points per game, Casa Pia 1.2.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.7
Over 2.538%
Both teams score40%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.74X26%3.80216%6.20
Double chance
1X84%1.19X242%2.351274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.538%2.61Under 2.562%1.62BTTS yes40%2.52BTTS no60%1.66

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Casa Pia1-0 probability 15.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Casa Pia – Santa Clara10 October 20260-1
Casa Pia – Santa Clara18 April 20260-0
Santa Clara – Casa Pia6 December 20251-0
Santa Clara – Casa Pia1 February 20252-1
Casa Pia – Santa Clara24 August 20240-2
Casa Pia – Santa Clara29 January 20232-1