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Primeira Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arouca5th place
EAM 29%X 28%ARO 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 141 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 2.0 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.43X28%3.57243%2.34
Double chance
1X57%1.75X271%1.411272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arouca – Estrela Amadora11 October 20261-0
Arouca – Estrela Amadora19 April 20261-0
Estrela Amadora – Arouca7 December 20253-1
Arouca – Estrela Amadora19 April 20251-0
Estrela Amadora – Arouca9 December 20242-1
Arouca – Estrela Amadora5 May 20240-0