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Primeira Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Braga7th place
SCP 60%X 24%SCB 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 152 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Sporting CP 1.6 points per game, Braga 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Braga 0.6.
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Braga score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.559%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sporting CP win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X24%4.20216%6.15
Double chance
1X84%1.19X240%2.491276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Braga1-1 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Braga – Sporting CP9 October 20261-3
Braga – Sporting CP7 March 20262-2
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Sporting CP – Braga7 April 20251-1
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Sporting CP – Braga11 February 20245-0