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Primeira Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Benfica2nd place
VSC 15%X 21%BEN 63%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 274 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Vitória de Guimarães 1.0.
  • Benfica take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 42% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 84% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.0
Over 2.555%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
115%6.49X21%4.66263%1.58
Double chance
1X37%2.71X285%1.181279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.23BTTS yes51%1.94BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Benfica0-2 probability 11.2%

Form

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Head to head

Benfica – Vitória de Guimarães11 October 20262-0
Benfica – Vitória de Guimarães21 March 20263-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Benfica1 November 20250-3
Vitória de Guimarães – Benfica19 April 20250-3
Benfica – Vitória de Guimarães7 December 20241-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Benfica11 February 20242-2