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Primeira Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Marítimo14th place
POR 83%X 12%MAR 4%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 397 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Marítimo -0.5.
  • If Porto score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 21% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.9 – 0.6
Over 2.568%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
183%1.20X12%8.2424%22.78
Double chance
1X96%1.05X217%6.051288%1.14
Goals
Over 2.568%1.47Under 2.532%3.13BTTS yes43%2.32BTTS no57%1.76

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Marítimo2-0 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →
PortoWWWWW

Head to head

Marítimo – Porto10 October 20261-2
Marítimo – Porto1 February 20230-2
Porto – Marítimo6 August 20225-1
Porto – Marítimo30 January 20222-1
Marítimo – Porto22 August 20211-1