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Primeira Liga · Matchday 13Sunday 6 December · 16:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Moreirense8th place
ALV 48%X 28%MOR 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Alverca -0.3, Moreirense -0.9.
  • If Alverca score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.545%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.10X28%3.59225%4.08
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.911272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.545%2.22Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Moreirense1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

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Head to head

Alverca – Moreirense17 January 20262-1
Moreirense – Alverca10 August 20252-1