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Primeira Liga · Matchday 13Sunday 6 December · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Gil Vicente9th place
EAM 27%X 29%GIL 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Gil Vicente lead by 111 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Gil Vicente 1.6 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.4
Over 2.542%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Gil Vicente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.64X29%3.47244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X273%1.381271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.35Under 2.558%1.74BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Gil Vicente1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

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Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Gil Vicente8 March 20262-2
Gil Vicente – Estrela Amadora4 October 20252-0
Estrela Amadora – Gil Vicente7 March 20251-1
Gil Vicente – Estrela Amadora5 October 20243-0
Estrela Amadora – Gil Vicente18 May 20241-0
Gil Vicente – Estrela Amadora14 January 20241-1