TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 13Sunday 6 December · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Benfica2nd place
NAC 10%X 16%BEN 75%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 334 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Nacional -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • If Nacional score first, they win 31% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 90% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Over 2.563%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
110%10.50X16%6.32275%1.34
Double chance
1X25%3.94X290%1.111284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.563%1.60Under 2.537%2.67BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Benfica0-2 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →
BenficaWWLWW

Head to head

Benfica – Nacional12 April 20262-0
Nacional – Benfica29 November 20251-2
Benfica – Nacional8 March 20253-0
Nacional – Benfica19 December 20240-2