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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 13Sunday 6 December · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Braga
Braga7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Arouca5th place
SCB 52%X 27%ARO 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Braga 0.6, Arouca 0.0.
  • If Braga score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Braga win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.94X27%3.71222%4.64
Double chance
1X78%1.27X248%2.061273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Braga · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
BragaWDLLW
AroucaLDWWW

Head to head

Braga – Arouca12 April 20261-0
Arouca – Braga1 December 20250-4
Braga – Arouca29 March 20252-1
Arouca – Braga3 November 20241-2
Braga – Arouca6 April 20240-3
Arouca – Braga12 November 20230-1