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Primeira Liga · Matchday 31Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Académico de Viseu6th place
ARO 51%X 27%ACV 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arouca 0.0, Académico de Viseu -0.5.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Académico de Viseu score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.548%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X27%3.76222%4.47
Double chance
1X78%1.29X249%2.041273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.548%2.10Under 2.552%1.91BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Académico de Viseu1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

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