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Primeira Liga · Matchday 31Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Casa Pia17th place
NAC 46%X 28%CPA 26%

Prediction

  • If Nacional score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.542%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nacional win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.19X28%3.51226%3.88
Double chance
1X74%1.35X254%1.841272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.39Under 2.558%1.72BTTS yes48%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Casa Pia1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nacional – Casa Pia8 February 20260-0
Casa Pia – Nacional30 August 20250-2
Nacional – Casa Pia16 March 20253-1
Casa Pia – Nacional25 October 20241-0