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Primeira Liga · Matchday 31Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicão11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Moreirense8th place
FAM 50%X 28%MOR 22%

Prediction

  • If Famalicão score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.544%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Famalicão win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%1.99X28%3.61222%4.55
Double chance
1X78%1.28X250%2.011272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.544%2.29Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes48%2.10BTTS no52%1.91

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Famalicão · Columns: Moreirense1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

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Head to head

Famalicão – Moreirense10 April 20261-1
Moreirense – Famalicão29 November 20252-2
Famalicão – Moreirense23 February 20252-0
Moreirense – Famalicão21 September 20240-0
Moreirense – Famalicão28 January 20241-0
Famalicão – Moreirense21 August 20230-0