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Primeira Liga · Matchday 31Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Braga
Braga7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Benfica2nd place
SCB 25%X 26%BEN 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 163 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Braga 0.8.
  • Benfica take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Braga score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Benfica win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.02X26%3.84249%2.04
Double chance
1X51%1.97X275%1.331274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.556%1.80Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.37

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Braga · Columns: Benfica1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →
BragaWDLLW
BenficaWWLWW

Head to head

Benfica – Braga11 May 20262-2
Braga – Benfica28 December 20252-2
Braga – Benfica17 May 20251-1
Benfica – Braga4 January 20251-2
Benfica – Braga27 April 20243-1
Braga – Benfica17 December 20230-1