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Primeira Liga · Matchday 31Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Porto1st place
EAM 11%X 18%POR 71%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 356 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Estrela Amadora -0.1.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 35% of the time
  • If Porto score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals0.7 – 2.2
Over 2.557%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
111%9.12X18%5.49271%1.41
Double chance
1X29%3.43X289%1.121282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.31BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Porto0-2 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Porto26 April 20261-2
Porto – Estrela Amadora15 December 20253-1
Estrela Amadora – Porto26 April 20252-0
Porto – Estrela Amadora16 December 20242-0
Porto – Estrela Amadora17 February 20242-0
Estrela Amadora – Porto15 September 20230-1