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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 18 April · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Braga7th place
ARO 32%X 28%SCB 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Braga 0.6, Arouca 0.0.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Braga score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Braga win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.15X28%3.51240%2.51
Double chance
1X60%1.66X268%1.461272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Braga1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →
AroucaLDWWW
BragaWDLLW

Head to head

Braga – Arouca12 April 20261-0
Arouca – Braga1 December 20250-4
Braga – Arouca29 March 20252-1
Arouca – Braga3 November 20241-2
Braga – Arouca6 April 20240-3
Arouca – Braga12 November 20230-1