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Primeira Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 18 April · 16:00 · Estádio do Marítimo
Marítimo14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Sporting CP3rd place
MAR 8%X 14%SCP 78%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 367 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Marítimo -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Sporting CP 1.6 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 26% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 90% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals0.9 – 3.0
Over 2.575%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
18%12.06X14%7.15278%1.29
Double chance
1X22%4.49X292%1.091286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.575%1.33Under 2.525%4.00BTTS yes58%1.71BTTS no42%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marítimo · Columns: Sporting CP0-2 probability 8.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sporting CP – Marítimo13 May 20232-1
Marítimo – Sporting CP8 January 20231-0
Marítimo – Sporting CP26 February 20221-1
Sporting CP – Marítimo24 September 20211-0