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Primeira Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 18 April · 16:00 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Estoril18th place
VSC 53%X 26%EST 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Estoril -0.6.
  • Vitória de Guimarães lead by 69 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Vitória de Guimarães 1.0 points per game, Estoril 0.0.
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Estoril score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.89X26%3.84221%4.79
Double chance
1X79%1.26X247%2.131274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Estoril1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Estoril – Vitória de Guimarães24 January 20264-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Estoril16 August 20253-2
Estoril – Vitória de Guimarães26 January 20251-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Estoril18 August 20241-0
Estoril – Vitória de Guimarães2 March 20241-3
Vitória de Guimarães – Estoril1 October 20233-2