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Primeira Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 18 April · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Nacional15th place
BEN 80%X 14%NAC 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 338 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Nacional -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 25% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.7 – 0.6
Over 2.565%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.25X14%7.0926%17.12
Double chance
1X94%1.06X220%5.021286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.565%1.55Under 2.535%2.82BTTS yes44%2.25BTTS no56%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Nacional2-0 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
BenficaWLWWW

Head to head

Benfica – Nacional12 April 20262-0
Nacional – Benfica29 November 20251-2
Benfica – Nacional8 March 20253-0
Nacional – Benfica19 December 20240-2