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Primeira Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 18 April · 16:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Santa Clara4th place
POR 66%X 23%SCL 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 212 rating points.
  • Porto take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Santa Clara 0.3.
  • If Porto score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.6
Over 2.541%
Both teams score37%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.52X23%4.44212%8.57
Double chance
1X88%1.13X234%2.921277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.541%2.42Under 2.559%1.70BTTS yes37%2.70BTTS no63%1.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Santa Clara1-0 probability 16.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Porto – Santa Clara16 May 20261-0
Santa Clara – Porto4 January 20260-1
Porto – Santa Clara26 January 20251-1
Santa Clara – Porto16 August 20240-2
Porto – Santa Clara15 April 20232-1
Santa Clara – Porto29 October 20221-1