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Primeira Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 18 April · 16:00 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Alverca10th place
MOR 35%X 29%ALV 36%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Alverca -0.3, Moreirense -0.9.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.2
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.86X29%3.44236%2.78
Double chance
1X64%1.56X265%1.541271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.545%2.24Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

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Head to head

Alverca – Moreirense17 January 20262-1
Moreirense – Alverca10 August 20252-1