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Primeira Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Sporting CP3rd place
ARO 18%X 22%SCP 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 185 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Arouca 0.0.
  • Sporting CP take 2.2 points per game away.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 43% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.1
Over 2.562%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Sporting CP win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
118%5.62X22%4.57260%1.66
Double chance
1X40%2.52X282%1.221278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Under 2.538%2.65BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Sporting CP1-1 probability 10.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sporting CP – Arouca19 September 20262-2
Arouca – Sporting CP24 January 20261-2
Sporting CP – Arouca17 August 20256-0
Sporting CP – Arouca15 February 20252-2
Arouca – Sporting CP13 September 20240-3
Arouca – Sporting CP10 March 20240-3