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Primeira Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Estádio do Rio Ave FC
Rio Ave16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Alverca9th place
RAV 29%X 28%ALV 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Alverca lead by 99 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Alverca 1.8 points per game, Rio Ave 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Alverca -0.2, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.43X28%3.64243%2.31
Double chance
1X57%1.77X271%1.411273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rio Ave · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
Rio AveDLWLL
AlvercaLWWWL

Head to head

Alverca – Rio Ave19 September 20261-0
Rio Ave – Alverca4 April 20261-2
Alverca – Rio Ave8 November 20251-1