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Primeira Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
MOR 32%X 29%VSC 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Moreirense -0.9.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.544%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.09X29%3.47239%2.58
Double chance
1X61%1.63X268%1.481271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.544%2.26Under 2.556%1.80BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Moreirense20 September 20261-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Moreirense30 January 20261-0
Moreirense – Vitória de Guimarães23 August 20252-0
Moreirense – Vitória de Guimarães30 March 20252-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Moreirense3 November 20241-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Moreirense30 March 20241-0