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Primeira Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Porto1st place
BEN 41%X 28%POR 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Porto score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Benfica win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.42X28%3.54230%3.29
Double chance
1X70%1.44X259%1.711272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.12Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Porto1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
BenficaWLWWW
PortoWWWWW

Head to head

Porto – Benfica20 September 20263-1
Benfica – Porto8 March 20262-2
Porto – Benfica5 October 20250-0
Porto – Benfica6 April 20251-4
Benfica – Porto10 November 20244-1
Porto – Benfica3 March 20245-0