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Primeira Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Estádio do Marítimo
Marítimo14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Gil Vicente9th place
MAR 22%X 26%GIL 52%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Gil Vicente lead by 152 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Gil Vicente 1.6 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Gil Vicente 0.2, Marítimo -0.5.
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.6
Over 2.546%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Gil Vicente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.57X26%3.78252%1.93
Double chance
1X48%2.07X278%1.281274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marítimo · Columns: Gil Vicente1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Gil Vicente – Marítimo19 September 20261-1
Gil Vicente – Marítimo5 March 20232-0
Marítimo – Gil Vicente11 September 20221-2
Gil Vicente – Marítimo20 March 20221-1
Marítimo – Gil Vicente31 October 20211-2