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Primeira Liga · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicão11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Nacional15th place
FAM 53%X 27%NAC 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Famalicão lead by 127 rating points.
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.543%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.89X27%3.72220%4.97
Double chance
1X80%1.25X247%2.131273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.543%2.31Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes46%2.16BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Famalicão · Columns: Nacional1-0 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nacional – Famalicão19 September 20260-4
Famalicão – Nacional21 March 20261-0
Nacional – Famalicão1 November 20250-1
Nacional – Famalicão1 March 20252-1
Famalicão – Nacional29 September 20240-0