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Premier League · Matchday 20Tuesday 5 January · 19:30 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Brentford6th place
ARS 64%X 22%BRE 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 146 rating points.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Brentford -0.1.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Brentford score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.7
Over 2.549%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.55X22%4.46213%7.59
Double chance
1X87%1.15X236%2.811278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes45%2.21BTTS no55%1.83

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Brentford2-0 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brentford – Arsenal12 February 20261-1
Arsenal – Brentford3 December 20252-0
Arsenal – Brentford12 April 20251-1
Brentford – Arsenal1 January 20251-3
Arsenal – Brentford9 March 20242-1
Brentford – Arsenal25 November 20230-1