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Premier League · Matchday 20Tuesday 5 January · 19:30 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Aston Villa9th place
EVE 38%X 28%AVL 34%

Prediction

  • If Everton score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Everton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.64X28%3.52234%2.96
Double chance
1X66%1.51X262%1.611272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.19Under 2.554%1.84BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Everton · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Everton18 January 20260-1
Everton – Aston Villa13 September 20250-0
Everton – Aston Villa15 January 20250-1
Aston Villa – Everton14 September 20243-2
Everton – Aston Villa14 January 20240-0
Aston Villa – Everton20 August 20234-0