TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 20Tuesday 5 January · 19:30 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Bournemouth8th place
BHA 46%X 27%BOU 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.555%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.19X27%3.70227%3.66
Double chance
1X73%1.38X254%1.841273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.23BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Bournemouth1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brighton – Bournemouth19 January 20261-1
Bournemouth – Brighton13 September 20252-1
Brighton – Bournemouth25 February 20252-1
Bournemouth – Brighton23 November 20241-2
Bournemouth – Brighton28 April 20243-0
Brighton – Bournemouth24 September 20233-1