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Premier League · Matchday 20Wednesday 6 January · 20:15 · Elland Road
Leeds United11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Manchester City2nd place
LEE 21%X 25%MCI 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 183 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 1.8 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Leeds United -0.3.
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.7
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.69X25%3.97253%1.87
Double chance
1X47%2.15X279%1.271275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leeds United · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leeds United – Manchester City28 February 20260-1
Manchester City – Leeds United29 November 20253-2
Manchester City – Leeds United6 May 20232-1
Leeds United – Manchester City28 December 20221-3
Leeds United – Manchester City30 April 20220-4
Manchester City – Leeds United14 December 20217-0