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Premier League · Matchday 20Thursday 7 January · 20:00 · Old Trafford
Manchester United17th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Newcastle United13th place
MUN 53%X 25%NEW 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester United 0.1, Newcastle United -0.7.
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.87X25%4.01222%4.62
Double chance
1X78%1.28X247%2.151275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester United · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Manchester United4 March 20262-1
Manchester United – Newcastle United26 December 20251-0
Newcastle United – Manchester United13 April 20254-1
Manchester United – Newcastle United30 December 20240-2
Manchester United – Newcastle United15 May 20243-2
Newcastle United – Manchester United2 December 20231-0