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Premier League · Matchday 20Wednesday 6 January · 19:30 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Chelsea4th place
CRY 28%X 26%CHE 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Chelsea lead by 116 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Chelsea 1.8 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Chelsea 0.0, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.59X26%3.80246%2.18
Double chance
1X54%1.85X272%1.391274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.32BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Crystal Palace – Chelsea25 January 20261-3
Chelsea – Crystal Palace17 August 20250-0
Crystal Palace – Chelsea4 January 20251-1
Chelsea – Crystal Palace1 September 20241-1
Crystal Palace – Chelsea12 February 20241-3
Chelsea – Crystal Palace27 December 20232-1