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Premier League · Matchday 20Tuesday 5 January · 20:15 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Liverpool5th place
SUN 25%X 26%LIV 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Liverpool lead by 157 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Liverpool 1.8 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Sunderland -0.2.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.01X26%3.81249%2.05
Double chance
1X51%1.95X275%1.331274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Liverpool11 February 20260-1
Liverpool – Sunderland3 December 20251-1