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Serie A · Matchday 32Sunday 18 April · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Udinese19th place
ATA 56%X 25%UDI 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 122 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atalanta 1.0 points per game, Udinese 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atalanta -0.5, Udinese -1.1.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Udinese score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.554%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.79X25%4.04219%5.14
Double chance
1X81%1.24X244%2.261275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.18BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Udinese1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →
UdineseLLLDL

Head to head

Atalanta – Udinese7 March 20262-2
Udinese – Atalanta1 November 20251-0
Udinese – Atalanta11 January 20250-0
Atalanta – Udinese10 November 20242-1
Atalanta – Udinese27 January 20242-0
Udinese – Atalanta12 November 20231-1