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Serie A · Matchday 32Sunday 18 April · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Napoli8th place
MIL 38%X 29%NAP 33%

Prediction

  • If Milan score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.61X29%3.51233%3.02
Double chance
1X67%1.50X262%1.621271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.88BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Napoli1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Napoli – Milan6 April 20261-0
Milan – Napoli28 September 20252-1
Napoli – Milan30 March 20252-1
Milan – Napoli29 October 20240-2
Milan – Napoli11 February 20241-0
Napoli – Milan29 October 20232-2