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Serie A · Matchday 32Sunday 18 April · 17:30 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Parma18th place
FIO 49%X 28%PAR 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fiorentina -0.1, Parma -0.7.
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Parma score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.540%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Fiorentina win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.06X28%3.52223%4.34
Double chance
1X77%1.30X251%1.951272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.540%2.47Under 2.560%1.68BTTS yes45%2.20BTTS no55%1.83

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Parma1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
ParmaWLLLD

Head to head

Fiorentina – Parma8 March 20260-0
Parma – Fiorentina27 December 20251-0
Fiorentina – Parma13 April 20250-0
Parma – Fiorentina17 August 20241-1